WTO warns Africa's trade to slowdown in 2026 after 2025 boom.

This was during a press briefing in Yaounde on global and African trade outlooks.

According to a report presented by the official, projections showed a sharp moderation in both goods and services trade across the continent. Merchandise export volumes are forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, compared with 10.3% recorded in 2025. 

Staiger projected import growth to slow to 3.2% and 3.7% over the same period, down from 8.7% last year. The WTO Chief Economist also revealed that services exports are projected to expand by 3.7% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, following a 5.9% rise in 2025.

The projected slowdown in Africa, he detailed, aligns with a broader deceleration in global trade. 

According to the WTO report, global merchandise trade growth is expected to decline from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, while services trade growth is forecast to ease from 5.3% to 4.8%.

The 2025 surge, the official said, was driven by two main factors: early import activity in North America ahead of anticipated tariff measures and a global investment boom in artificial intelligence-related goods and services. These drivers are expected to weaken in 2026, reducing momentum in global demand.

The report indicated that Africa’s strong trade performance in 2025 was supported by rising demand for key export commodities including cocoa, coffee, gold, fertilisers and mineral ores. 

In the services sector, the report detailed that growth was largely driven by international travel, particularly in North Africa. Morocco, the report added, recorded a 23% increase in travel exports, while Egypt posted an 18% rise, together accounting for nearly half of the continent’s tourism income.

Trade flows, per the report, also shifted during the year due to tariff developments. Reduced access for certain Asian exporters to the North American market led to a reorientation towards emerging markets, including Africa. 

Chinese exports to Africa, per the report, rose by 25.8% in 2025, increasing China’s share of African imports to nearly 25%, up from 18% in 2019. 

Over the same period, it was revealed that the European Union’s share declined from 27% to 22%. Africa also recorded increased exports to the United Arab Emirates and India, supported by higher gold demand during a period of global economic uncertainty.

Conflict risks, energy prices 

The official identified the Middle East conflict as the main risk to Africa’s trade outlook, with impacts expected through energy prices, tourism flows and agricultural supply chains. 

Higher oil prices, he projected, could raise export revenues for oil-producing economies while increasing costs for net importers, weighing on broader economic activity.

Tourism and services trade, he detailed, face additional risks linked to disruptions in major transit hubs. He warned that if the conflict persists, growth in services trade could fall from 3.7% to 1.7% in 2026, reflecting reduced connectivity between Africa and key markets in Europe and Asia.

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for around one-third of global fertiliser exports, it was revealed, are also expected to increase agricultural costs and place pressure on food systems across the continent.

AI demand supports commodities, digital services

The WTO report revealed that despite the projected slowdown, global investment in artificial intelligence continues to support demand for African exports. 

Many AI-related products, including semiconductors, remain exempt from tariffs, sustaining demand for raw materials and minerals used in technology value chains.

Africa’s participation in higher-value segments remains limited, accounting for less than 0.5% of global venture capital investment in AI. 

However, growth in digital services, particularly in computer and data-related services, indicates ongoing expansion in service-based trade.

The projections indicate that Africa’s trade performance in 2026 will reflect broader global conditions, with external demand, commodity markets and geopolitical developments shaping the pace of growth following the 2025 surge.

This article was first published in The Guardian Post Edition No:3746 of Monday March 30, 2026